Transportation Needs Study Completed; Significant Deterioration Expected Unless Current Funding Levels Increased
If Florida continues to spend at the current levels on its transportation systems, significant deterioration in the state's transportation infrastructure and quality of service can be expected. In the case of the state's highways, congestion will increase dramatically and physical conditions will worsen. Similar consequences will be seen for transit, aviation, seaports, and other modes. These are the conclusions of the Statewide Transportation Needs and Funding Study published in June 1995. The study is part of the State Transportation Policy Initiative, which looks at a broad array of transportation issues and was undertaken at the request of the Governor's Office and the Florida Legislature. This particular study analyzed transportation needs and funding in Florida over the next 20 years. The study examined all systems and modes of transportation, including:
Future Scenarios
The needs of each system and mode were projected for 10 and 20 years under four scenarios, using 1992 as the base year. Revenues also were projected for each potential revenue source and each scenario, and the corresponding shortfalls were calculated. The four scenarios are:
Maintain Funding. This scenario assumes that existing revenue sources for each mode will remain in place and that there will be no change in tax and fee rates.
Maintain Conditions. This scenario assumes that improvements will be made to all modes, as necessary, to maintain the existing levels of service and physical conditions.
Maintain Conditions with Maximum Lane Policy. This scenario assumes the same improvements as the previous scenario, subject to constraints on the number of lanes permitted for various roadway classifications. The scenario assumes that the reductions in roadway expenditures caused by the lane constraints will result in an equal amount of expenditures being transferred to transit, thereby reducing the emphasis on highways and increasing the role of transit.
Improve Conditions. In addition to maintaining conditions, this scenario assumes that all current deficiencies in the physical condition of facilities and in levels of service will be corrected over the 20-year planning period. In addition to correcting deficiencies, the scenario assumes that there will be substantially increased emphasis on transit.Methodologies
A substantial part of the project was to develop methodologies for forecasting each mode's needs and funding. An extensive literature review was conducted and methodologies from a wide variety of sources were evaluated for applicability to the particular tasks of this study.
In the end, a combination of methodologies from state and federal sources, along with new methodologies developed by CUTR, were used. For the highway and bridge projections, CUTR worked closely with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to apply FHWA's simulation models (HPMS and BNIP) to Florida's systems.
Projected Needs and Shortfalls
To maintain conditions through 2012 will require an additional $26.7 billion. Eliminating all deficiencies and increasing the emphasis on transit would increase the shortfall to $58.1 billion.
The revenue-raising potential of each existing and several alternative sources of transportation revenue also was analyzed and forecasted so that policy makers can easily see what contribution each source or combination of sources can make toward eliminating the shortfall.
One combination would be to increase all current taxes and fees an equal percentage. Included in this illustration is the assumption that new transportation facilities would be tolled in the same proportion as existing facilities, so that the percentage of total transportation revenue derived from tolls would remain constant. The local shortfalls vary, depending on whether or not fixed-route transit is provided.
Recommendations
The report concludes with several recommendations:
Encourage informed discussion on transportation funding issues by increasing public awareness of the consequences of the different scenarios. Because the consequences of not addressing Florida's transportation needs will be severe, the report recommends that some forum or process--possibly statewide referenda--be provided that encourages substantial public involvement and a thorough discussion and understanding of the issues and consequences.
Index more transportation fees and taxes to inflation. The state motor fuels tax is indexed to inflation but it accounts for only one-third of the state's transportation revenues. If more transportation funding sources were indexed to inflation, the relationship of costs and revenues would be better balanced over time. Increase transportation revenues. Under most definitions of transportation needs, Florida's needs over the next 20 years will exceed available revenues. Indexing will help, but tax and fee rate increases also are necessary. The extent of the rate increases will depend, in part, on the definition of needs that develops out of informed public discussion. The source of additional revenues also is a subject for public discussion. Seek continuance of federal funding participation. Even if no explicit cuts are made in federal aid, the real contribution from federal transportation funding will decline due to the eroding effects of inflation. Unlike Florida's motor fuels tax, none of the federal transportation revenue sources is indexed. As a result, the federal share of funding for Florida's state highway system is projected to decline from 35 percent to 27 percent by 2012. Likewise, inflation alone is expected to cause the federal share of transit funding in Florida to decline from 28 percent to 18 percent.
Recognize that some transportation investments should be policy driven rather than demand driven. Transportation investment decisions can be and often are made with the intention of achieving policy objectives other than simply meeting the demand for transportation. In the case of transit, for instance, there are a number of policy issues, such as air quality, transit dependency, and growth management, to consider when determining the appropriate level of supply. To illustrate this, one of the scenarios in the report is a case where, as a matter of policy, highway widenings are limited and cost savings are shifted to transit. Explore other funding options. Other options that have merit and that the state should explore include privatizing transportation facilities, reducing the diversion of transportation user fees to non-transportation uses, and increasing the use of revenue bonds. The report also recommends that the state continue to pursue greater equity in the distribution of federal transportation funding. Florida historically has been a donor state (receiving an average of 80 cents out of every dollar it has paid into the Federal Highway Trust Fund) due to the fact that federal apportionment factors are in large part based on Decennial Census of Population figures, which, by virtue of Florida's rapid growth rate, are already out of date when published. This report is one of a series of reports published as part of STPI. To date, 11 reports have been produced, and two others will be published by early summer.
For further information on the Statewide Transportation Needs and Funding Study, contact CUTR Deputy Director for Planning F. Ron Jones. For further information on the STPI project, contact STPI Project Director Ed Mierzejewski.
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